[F15] Agnostic Risk Management for High Impact, Low Probability (HILP) Events: A systemic approach to resilience stress testing
Conference Bldg 2F - Sakura Hall
| Affiliation | Johanniter-Unfall-Hilfe e.V. |
|---|---|
| Presenter | Cveljo Gordana |
Keywords
- Risk-agnostic
- System resilience
- Stress-tests
Outline
The recent growth of global interdependences, which increased vulnerability to systemic failures, coupled with climate change, which exacerbated climatic hazards, caused a rapid rise in frequency and severity of High Impact, Low Probability (HILP) events. Traditional risk-based approaches are unable to account for cascading or compounding failures, highlighting the need for a more holistic methodology able to model complex risk dynamics.
To address this problem, the AGILE project proposes a novel systemic and hazard- agnostic risk and resilience stress testing framework. A tiered methodology will be developed and applied, progressively increasing in complexity and analytical depth, reaching from tabletop exercises to systemic network analyses. By involving different stakeholders from the outset, the framework will improve decision making at local, regional and national levels, hence increasing system resilience.
The stress tests will be implemented in nine case studies, including municipalities, countries, transnational regions and initiatives, and the lessons learnt from implementation will feed into the AGILE guidelines for evidence-based planning and policy recommendations for dealing with HILP events. AGILE promotes a proactive, systemic perspective to build more resilient societies capable of coping with future HILP challenges.
