[P10] Assessing tsunami risk to the global port network: A South China Sea case-study
| Affiliation | Tohoku University |
|---|---|
| Author | Chua Constance |
| Co-Author | Takuro Otake（東北大学） Tanghua Li（南洋理工大学） An-Chi Cheng（東北大学） Qiang Qiu（中国科学院） Linlin Li（中山大学） Anawat Suppasri（東北大学） Fumihiko Imamura（東北大学） Adam Switzer（南洋理工大学） |
Keywords
- Tsunami
- Port
- Damage
Outline
The Manila megathrust which lines the eastern boundaries of the South China Sea basin can generate basin-wide tsunamis. The South China Sea region is home to some of the world’s busiest ports. With many major ports concentrated in the region and most of them located in low-lying coastal areas, a tsunami event from the Manila trench could be damaging for many of them. Beyond physical damage, a disruption to port functions affects trade flows in and out of the affected port as well as the shipping routes connected to it. Such disruption can then propagate throughout the rest of the maritime network, which can result in detrimental economic consequences beyond the damaged port. The objective of this study is to provide an approach to quantifying the impacts of a tsunami on the global port network through network analyses, using a potential Manila Trench tsunami as a case scenario. Our findings show that a Manila Trench tsunami could potentially damage up to 11 ports at present-day sea levels and 15 ports in future sea level scenarios. Port closure could exceed 200 days and cause greater disruption to shipping routes than historical tsunami events such as the 2011 Tohoku tsunami.
