[P16] Coral Reef Protectiveness Against Tsunamis Weakens by Forty Percent Under Climate Change in the Maldives
| 所属 | Tohoku University |
|---|---|
| 筆頭著者・発表者 | Lahcene Elisa |
| 共著者 | Mr. Gabriel Ferreira （ENI Saint Etienne） Prof. Ilan Kelman（UCL） Prof. Timothy Ravasi（OIST） Mr. Muhammad Rizki Purnama （Tohoku University） Assoc. Prof. Anawat Suppasri（IRIDeS, Tohoku University） Dr Kwanchai Pakoksung （IRIDeS, Tohoku University） Prof. Fumihiko Imamura（IRIDeS, Tohoku University） |
キーワード
- Reef system
- Climate change
- Tsunami mitigation
概要
The Maldives face heightened vulnerability to tsunamis due to low-lying topography, high population density and all-encompassing wave exposure. While coral reefs provide critical protection, their effectiveness in mitigating tsunamis under climate change is not well understood. We present the first quantitative assessment of the reef buffering ability during the Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT) and projected climate change scenarios, using high-resolution tsunami numerical modelling for North Male Atoll. Our analysis reveals that the reef attenuated tsunami energy flux by 50% during the IOT, but this protection declines to 35% under SSP1-2.6 and further to 30% under SSP5-8.5. The influence of the reef on inundation extent diminishes significantly, with inundation nearly doubling under SSP1-2.6 (from 40% to 70%) and approaching 95% under SSP5-8.5. These findings highlight the decreasing efficacy of reefs as coastal defences in a changing climate, offering crucial insights for policymakers to refine disaster management strategies and reef conservation initiatives.
